5 numbers every futures trader must know — backed by 17,188 sessions and 20 years of data across ES, NQ, YM, and RTY.
ES · NQ · YM · RTY | Jan 2006 – Apr 2026
IMPORTANT — PLEASE READ. All performance figures, win rates, expected value calculations, and simulated outcomes in this report are hypothetical and based entirely on historical backtesting. They do not represent actual trading results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial deposit. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose entirely.
This report is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice, investment advice, or a solicitation to trade. Consult a qualified financial professional before making any trading decisions.
CFTC Rule 4.41: Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact of certain market factors. Simulated trading programs are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Important — Read Before Using This Guide or Any KwantOne Product · Legal · Last Updated May 2026 · KwantOne · Ontario, Canada
Trading futures and other leveraged instruments carries inherent risk of substantial loss. The highly leveraged nature of futures trading means small market movements may have a significant impact on your account — potentially resulting in losses greater than your initial deposit. You should only trade with capital you can afford to lose entirely. A majority of day traders experience financial loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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All KwantOne statistics — including K1 win rates, expected value per trade, breakout frequency, MFE, MAE, and all other quantitative results — are derived from historical backtesting across 17,188 sessions (2004–2024). These results are hypothetical and were not generated from live trading accounts. Actual results will vary based on individual execution, broker, account size, discipline, and market conditions. Results shown are selected to demonstrate methodology and are not representative of average member outcomes.
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Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Futures and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This guide is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options.
Questions? If you have questions about this disclosure or whether KwantOne products are appropriate for your situation, contact us at support@kwantone.com before using this guide. We encourage all users to consult a qualified financial advisor prior to trading futures or other leveraged instruments.
© 2026 Ellex Capital Inc. dba KwantOne. All rights reserved. Ontario, Canada. For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Ask a consistently profitable trader what their edge is. They give you a number. One sentence. Anyone would understand it.
Ask a losing trader the same question. You get a story. Patterns that "usually work." Setups that "feel right." Instincts built on hope. No numbers. No verified expected value. Just opinions dressed up as strategy.
Most trading education teaches you what to look for. Almost none of it tells you what to expect when you find it. So traders take valid setups, hit normal statistical losses, assume the system is broken, and jump to the next shiny thing. Repeat forever.
That cycle is expensive. And it's completely avoidable — if you start with the right number.
One indicator. KwantVision detects and displays the breakout, retracement, continuation, and reversal levels in real time — automatically. One strategy with a positive expected value — verified across 17,188 sessions and 20 years. Your only job is execution.
Traders fail not because they lack strategies — they fail because they lack a verified edge. Without data, every losing streak feels like proof the strategy is broken. With data, you know exactly what's normal. That changes everything.
This report delivers five specific numbers. They are structural properties of US equity futures markets that have remained stable across two decades of different regimes, volatility environments, and market conditions. They don't predict the future. They describe the distribution of outcomes — so you know what normal looks like before you place a single trade.
Every losing trade feels like the strategy is broken. You second-guess entries. You move stops. You skip setups. You quit right before the edge would have proven itself. You restart from zero with a new system and repeat.
You know what a normal losing streak looks like. You know your win rate, your expected return per trade, and your annual edge. Losing trades become expected variance — not evidence of failure. You stay in the game.
Every number in this report is a multiple of the day's overnight session range — the distance between the session high and low.
Think of it as a measuring stick that resizes itself every morning. The range is always 1.0×. Everything else is measured against it. That way, the statistics work whether the market is calm or volatile, whether you're trading ES or YM, whether it's 2010 or 2025.
Every night, while the US sleeps, futures markets trade in a tight range. Low volume. Global news. Overnight positioning. That range captures everything the market thinks between midnight and 6 AM. It's the world's overnight opinion on where prices should be.
When 6 AM hits and the US session opens — price breaks out of that range. Not sometimes. Not when conditions align. Not on good days only. Almost every single day.
Across 17,188 sessions — through the 2008 crash, the 2020 COVID collapse, multiple Fed rate cycles, everything — the overnight range broke out on 98.8–99.0% of all trading days. That's not a pattern. That's structure.
A coin flip is fair — but flip it 3 times and you might get 3 heads. Flip it 1,000 times and it lands near 50/50 every time. At 249 setups per year, you cross 1,000 trades in roughly 4 years. The law of large numbers does the rest.
The traders who fail are not the ones with bad strategies. They're the ones who take some setups and skip others — based on feel, news, or recent losses. An edge only works if it's applied consistently.
Of all the breakouts that occur, slightly more go up than down. About 55% break higher, 45% break lower. That reflects the long-term upward drift of US equity index futures. Consistent across all four instruments. Consistent across 20 years.
| Instrument | High Breakout % | Low Breakout % | Sessions | Data Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 55.2% | 44.8% | 4,951 | Jan 2006 – Apr 2026 |
| NQ | 55.0% | 45.0% | 4,966 | Jan 2006 – Apr 2026 |
| YM | 54.0% | 46.0% | 4,938 | Jan 2006 – Apr 2026 |
| RTY | 55.5% | 44.5% | 2,161 | Jul 2017 – Apr 2026 |
Approximately 70% of all breakouts fire before 9:00 AM EST. On ES, the median MFE extension on a 6–7 AM breakout is 1.217× vs 1.049× after 9 AM. On NQ: 1.368× vs 1.102×. Earlier is better. Being at your screen before 6 AM is not optional — it's where the edge lives.
The same overnight range structure works across ES, NQ, YM, and RTY. The statistics differ slightly — RTY has the highest MFE, NQ second highest — but the core framework is identical. Learn it once. Apply it to any or all four instruments.
Knowing the breakout happens is only half the story. You need to know how far it travels. Otherwise you're just hoping it goes far enough. Hope is not a target.
We measure every breakout extension as a multiple of that morning's overnight range. On a 20-point ES range, a 1.0× extension means price traveled 20 points past the session high. A 1.079× extension means 21.6 points.
| MFE Level | % of Sessions Reaching This Level (ES · 4,951 sessions) |
|---|---|
| 0.25× | 91.4% |
| 0.50× | 78.1% |
| 0.75× | 65.0% |
| 1.00× | 53.8% |
| 1.50× | 36.7% |
| 2.00× | 25.0% |
The median breakout on ES traveled 1.079× the overnight range past the session high. That's your baseline target. Not a wish. The midpoint of 20 years of data.
| Instrument | MFE P25 | MFE P50 ★ Primary | MFE P75 | MFE Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 0.556× | 1.079× | 2.000× | 1.525× |
| NQ | 0.588× | 1.235× | 2.223× | 1.732× |
| YM | 0.583× | 1.154× | 2.077× | 1.616× |
| RTY | 0.620× | 1.241× | 2.388× | 1.821× |
Most traders obsess over win rate. "I need to win 60%, 70%, 80% of my trades." That is the wrong number.
Win rate without risk-reward is meaningless. A 70% win rate with bad risk-reward destroys accounts. A 45% win rate with excellent risk-reward builds them. The number that actually matters is Expected Value (EV) — what you make, on average, for every dollar you risk.
Win 70% of trades. But risk 4R to make 1R.
You win more trades than you lose — and still go broke.
Win 45% of trades. Make 3R when you win, lose 1R when you don't.
You lose more trades than you win — and still grow your account.
At $250 risk per trade: +0.110R = +$27.55 expected on every single setup. Over 249 setups per year, that consistency compounds. Scale the risk. Scale the return.
K1 enters at the breakout bar close. Full range stop. Wins 47–53% of the time. K2 enters at the retracement. Half the risk. Wins 35–38% of the time. The R:R is dramatically better — K2 produces 5–12× more expected value per trade than K1.
| Metric | K1 — ES | K2 — ES | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | Breakout close | P50 retracement | K2 lower risk |
| Stop distance | 1.0× range | 0.5× range | K2 half the risk |
| Win rate | 53.4% | 37.8% | K1 wins more often |
| R:R (P50) | 1.08:1 | 3.25:1 | K2 3× better R:R |
| EV per trade | +0.110R | +0.605R | K2 is 5.5× higher |
The R:R advantage of K2 compounds dramatically over time. Same market. Same risk per trade. The only variable is where you enter. Entry timing is the entire difference between $142,535 and $759,625 over 20 years.
After the breakout fires and extends to its initial peak, price almost always pulls back. Not sometimes — 9 out of 10 sessions. The retracement is not a problem. It's the setup for K2.
Wait for the first bar to close above the session high (long) or below the session low (short) after 6:00 AM EST. Enter at the close. Stop at the opposite session boundary. Target: P50 MFE. KwantVision shows exactly where all levels are before the breakout fires.
On 90% of breakout days, after the initial move, price pulls back toward the overnight range. That pullback is not a problem. It's a gift. KwantVision automatically shades the P25–P75 retracement zone (the purple band). When price enters that zone, K2 traders prepare to enter — in the same direction as the original breakout — but now with half the risk and 3× the reward.
Price holds the zone and resumes higher. K2 wins. Continuation is 2.4× more likely than reversal. This frequency difference, combined with a 3.25:1 R:R, is why K2 EV is 5.5× higher than K1.
The zone doesn't hold. Price breaks back through the session range. K2 stops out. This happens 1 in 4 sessions. With 3.25:1 R:R, you only need to win 1 in 4 to break even — and K2 wins 37.8%. The math still works.
About 25% of sessions end in a reversal. Price breaks out, extends, then completely reverses through the session range and keeps going the other direction. Both K1 and K2 stop out on these days. This is not a flaw in the strategy. It's part of the math.
A 3.25:1 R:R means a trader can lose 3 trades and win 1 and still break even. K2 wins 37.8% — more than enough to produce positive expected value despite the reversal sessions.
KwantVision also plots the REV P25, P50, P75, and AVG extension levels — so even on reversal days, the trader knows exactly where price is statistically likely to travel. The edge works in both directions. The data covers all outcomes.
The previous four numbers describe the edge. This one shows what happens when a trader applies it consistently — every valid setup, every morning, for 20 years, risking $250 per trade, no compounding, no position scaling.
We ran 500 Monte Carlo simulations — randomizing the sequence of wins and losses using actual historical win rates — to see the range of outcomes a real trader might experience.
| Instrument | Period | Median Final Balance | P25 Outcome | P75 Outcome | % Profitable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 20 yr | $142,535 | $131,620 | $153,450 | 100% |
| NQ | 20 yr | $98,206 | $87,031 | $111,616 | 100% |
| YM | 20 yr | $181,102 | $169,793 | $194,026 | 100% |
| RTY | 9 yr | $39,175 | $30,211 | $47,579 | 99.6% |
100% of 500 simulated ES paths finished profitable over 20 years. Not most of them. All of them. Every possible randomized sequence of wins and losses — profitable. That's what a real edge looks like over time.
With ~249 setups per year, the edge has enough repetitions to prove itself within a single calendar year. The biggest mistake traders make: they quit after 20 or 30 trades. That's like flipping a coin 3 times and concluding it's broken. You need the sample size. Stay in the game long enough for the math to work.
Every customer starts with the 90-Day Transformation. The Annual Elite Membership is offered exclusively to Certified KwantOne Traders — after earning their Certified KwantOne Trader status.
Log at least 10 trading sessions in your first 30 days and work through the program. If after that KwantOne isn't the right fit, we'll refund every dollar — no questions asked. Traders who do the work don't ask for refunds.
The research is free. The execution is the program. Join the 90-Day KwantOne Transformation and trade this edge with daily coaching.